The grand prize was a decent bonus on top of the rewards you were aiming for, and also gave a small amount of aid in getting a complete set. Most people did this, so claiming it as the reason this year is fine is simply incorrect. You could save for specific rewards last year, as the chests didn't rotate and you could aim for the pieces you wanted when they arrived in the daily special. Maybe I'm just really unlucky.Not a great example there. A little better, but still pretty far from 16-20%. I am not at all clinging to the Gambler's Fallacy.Īs of this post, I am now up to 2 for 32. I do not expect "cumulative" chances or anything like what you're ascribing to me. 0 or 1 would be very unlucky.Įspecially when the chance of success is more than 16% some of the time - 18% or 20%.Īs of this post, I am now up to 2 for 32. Yes, you might get only 2 if you're unlucky, or maybe 5 if you're lucky. The actual average is 3.84, but of course, there's no such thing as 0.84 of a success. ![]() If you do something that has a 16% chance of succeeding each time, and you do it 24 times, you'd expect 3-4 successes. If I only got 1 heads on 24 tosses, that would be very, very unusual - about 0.000012% chance of only one heads in 24 tosses, assuming a fair (50/50) coin. Sure, I might get only 10 or 11 heads, or maybe 13-14 heads. If I toss a coin 24 times, chances are that I'll get heads 12 times. ![]() I am not at all clinging to the Gambler's Fallacy. ![]() Click to expand.I understand percentages completely.
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